金融雙語閱讀：《讓“新興市場”成為歷史》

　　就現(xiàn)階段而言，越來越明顯的是“新興市場”這個表述已越來越不合用。不如放棄它，以釋放我們的想象力，讓我們構思一個更為精細的模型，通過它來理解世界。下面學習啦小編為大家?guī)斫鹑?a href='http://regraff.com/cai/' target='_blank'>財經雙語閱讀：《讓“新興市場”成為歷史》，希望大家喜歡!

　　“As we are ....prisoners of the words we pick, we had better pick them well,” said Giovanni Sartori, the Italian political scientist. For a long time since they were first coined in the 1980s, the words “emerging markets” appeared to have been well-chosen, such was their popularity as a description for a big chunk of the planet. As the world evolves, the term is progressively losing its purchase over the collective consciousness because it imprisons perceptions within parameters that are increasingly false or unhelpful.

　　“由于我們……是自己所挑選的詞語的囚徒，因此我們得好好遣詞，”意大利政治學家喬萬尼?薩托利(Giovanni Sartori)如此說道。“新興市場”這個表述自上世紀80年代出爐以來，在很長一段時間內似乎很貼切，人們很喜歡用它來描述地球上相當大一部分地區(qū)。隨著世界發(fā)展變化，這個詞逐漸失去了其對世人集體意識的影響力，因為它把人們的觀感桎梏在日益虛假或無益的參數中。

　　For one thing, several “emerging markets” — particularly recession-hit Brazil and Russia — are no longer emerging in an economic sense but rather regressing at a rapid clip. For another, the sense of equivalence that the term bestows on the countries under its umbrella is entirely bogus. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan all boast a gross domestic product per capita that is higher than that of the UK, but find themselves occupying the same definitional space as India, the Philippines and Indonesia.

　　比如，數個“新興市場”——尤其是受到經濟衰退打擊的巴西和俄羅斯——在經濟意義上已經不再崛起，反而是在快速倒退。再比如，這個詞賦予其群體內所有經濟體的“均等感”完全是虛假的?？ㄋ枴⒙?lián)酋和臺灣地區(qū)都擁有比英國更高的人均國內生產總值(GDP)，但它們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己與印度、菲律賓和印尼處于同一個定義空間。

　　Most of all though, the longstanding hierarchy that put “emerging markets” at the periphery and “developed markets” at the core of global affairs may be unravelling. In purchasing power parity terms, developed countries contribute less to global output than their emerging counterparts, after their share of world GDP dwindled to 43 per cent in 2014 from 54 per cent in 2004.

　　但最重要的是，長期以來在全球事務中把“新興市場”置于外圍、把“發(fā)達市場”置于核心的等級體系也許正在解體。按購買力平價計算，發(fā)達國家對全球產出的貢獻已經少于新興經濟體的貢獻，占世界GDP的比重從2004年的54%降至2014年的43%。

　　Such inconsistencies not only make for a flawed definition that can misdirect analysis and entrench prejudice, they also exert a deleterious impact on portfolio investment returns. The collection of emerging market stock and bond indices that have grown up over the past three decades influence how fund managers in the west allocate their money. Because their performance is judged against the dominant index in their asset class, such managers generally try to invest in most or all of the assets included in the index. In emerging markets, this presents problems; several of the key indices pool a jumble of incongruous assets with wildly different risk profiles. For example, although 70 to 90 per cent of the JPMorgan EMBI, CEMBI, GBI-EM and ELMI+ are composed of investment grade bonds, the remainder in the words of Peter Marber, fund manager at Loomis Sayles, are “garbage”. Thus a fund manager who tries to mirror any of these indices is in effect being invited to add junk to his portfolio.

　　這種不一致不僅造成有缺陷的定義，進而誤導分析，固化偏見，而且會對投資組合的回報產生有害影響。過去30年里逐漸發(fā)展起來的新興市場股票和債券指數，影響著西方基金經理配置資金的方式。由于他們的表現(xiàn)是根據所在資產類別的主要指數來評定的，這些經理一般會試圖投資于指數所含的多數甚至全部資產。這種做法在新興市場帶來問題，因為多個關鍵指數只是把一些不協(xié)調的、風險狀況大相徑庭的資產拼湊在一起。舉例來說，摩根大通(JPMorgan) EMBI，CEMBI，GBI-EM和ELMI+指數雖然70%至90%由投資級債券構成，但是借用Loomis Sayles基金經理彼德?馬伯爾(Peter Marber)的話來說，其余標的資產都是“垃圾”。因此，試圖以這些指數中的任何一個為參照的基金經理，實際上是被邀請往他的投資組合添加垃圾。

　　Over the next two weeks, the Financial Times will publish alternatives to the “emerging markets” definition and host a debate on which of these seems most helpful. It would be foolish to prejudge that debate, but it may transpire that no single term can encapsulate the diversity of 152 countries identified by the International Monetary Fund as “emerging and developing economies”.

　　今后兩周，英國《金融時報》將發(fā)表“新興市場”這一定義的幾個替代詞語，并主持一場辯論，看哪一個定義最有幫助。提前評判這場辯論將是愚蠢的，但可能出現(xiàn)的情況是，沒有一個表述足以概括被國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認定為“新興和發(fā)展中經濟體”的152個國家的多樣性。

　　People are likely to perceive different characteristics according to their perspectives. A development economist might think, for example, that key criteria should include per capita GDP, educational coverage, health indices and the diversity of a country’s economic base. A fund manager would think that the access of international capital to a country’s financial markets is key. A strategist at a multinational company may think that a country’s openness to direct investment combined with its position on competitiveness rankings and corruption tables would be important determinants.

　　人們可能從自己的視角出發(fā)而特別注意某些特性。比如發(fā)展經濟學家可能會認為，關鍵標準應當包括人均GDP、教育普及度、健康指數以及一個國家經濟基礎的多樣性?；鸾浝頃J為，國際資本進入一國金融市場的能力是關鍵?？鐕镜牟呗詭熆赡軙J為，一個國家對直接投資的開放程度，加上其在競爭力和清廉榜單上的排名，將是重要的決定因素。

　　All this remains to be decided. At this stage it is becoming increasingly evident that the term “emerging markets” is less and less helpful. It should be scrapped, thus freeing us to imagine a more nuanced matrix through which to understand the world.

　　一切都有待定奪。就現(xiàn)階段而言，越來越明顯的是“新興市場”這個表述已越來越不合用。不如放棄它，以釋放我們的想象力，讓我們構思一個更為精細的模型，通過它來理解世界。