金融英語閱讀：China’s wealthy no longer putting on Ritz

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　　On a quiet afternoon this week, one female shopper was browsing through pricey handbags in Beijing’s largely empty Shin Kong luxury mall. 最近一個(gè)靜靜的午后，一位女顧客在空蕩蕩的北京新光天地豪華購物中心瀏覽高價(jià)手袋。

　　“I buy all sorts of brands — Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Prada, Gucci,” said the financial consultant. “Now the price of luxury products in China is much better than before but mostly, I buy them when I go abroad every year.” “我買各種品牌，路易威登(LV)、香奈兒(Chanel)、Prada、Gucci，”這位財(cái)務(wù)顧問說道，“現(xiàn)在國內(nèi)奢侈品的價(jià)格比過去便宜多了，但我大多是在每年去國外時(shí)購買。”

　　She may be willing to splash out on big brand names at home and abroad, but Chinese shoppers like her are becoming scarcer. The effects of a government crackdown on expensive gift-giving and the deceleration in the economy are being compounded by changing consumer tastes. 她可能愿意拿出大筆錢在國內(nèi)外購買大牌奢侈品，但像她這樣的中國消費(fèi)者正變得更加難找。政府對(duì)贈(zèng)送昂貴禮品的打擊以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩的影響，正與消費(fèi)者品味改變交織在一起。

　　Luxury companies are also suffering from heady expansion based on what a report this week, from US think-tank the Demand Institute and its parent institution, the Conference Board, described as “overly optimistic growth and consumption projections” that have “misled foreign investors”. 奢侈品公司還嘗到迅猛擴(kuò)張的苦果，美國智庫"需求研究所"(Demand Institute)及其上級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)“世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)”(Conference Board)最近的一份報(bào)告稱，這種擴(kuò)張基于“誤導(dǎo)外國投資者”的“過于樂觀的增長和消費(fèi)預(yù)測(cè)”。

　　Luxury spending in mainland China fell last year for the first time, according to Bain & Co, to roughly ￠15bn. The consultancy expects it to contract a further 2 per cent at constant currency rates, steeper than last year’s 1 per cent decline. 根據(jù)貝恩(Bain & Co)的數(shù)據(jù)，去年，中國內(nèi)地奢侈品支出首次下滑，為150億歐元左右。該咨詢公司預(yù)測(cè)，按不變匯率計(jì)算，今年將進(jìn)一步下滑2%，降幅大于去年的1%。

　　That is a sharp reversal of a decade of remarkable growth, when Chinese luxury spending, at home and abroad, leapt tenfold — from 3 per cent of global luxury spending in 2004 to 30 per cent last year, according to Exane BNP Paribas.

　　Without its main motor for growth, it is no longer a life of luxury for the world’s ￠250bn industry, which is having to work harder to adjust to the complexities of a more mature and fragmenting market. 那是對(duì)10年大幅增長的急劇逆轉(zhuǎn)。根據(jù)法國巴黎銀行證券部(Exane BNP Paribas)的數(shù)據(jù)，過去10年中國人在國內(nèi)外的奢侈品支出躍增10倍，從2004年占全球奢侈品支出3%，升至去年的30%。

　　Luca Solca, analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, says the Chinese market “hasn’t been great for anyone recently, but Prada and Burberry seem to be under greater pressure from China than their peers”. 沒有了主要增長推動(dòng)力，2500億歐元的全球奢侈品行業(yè)日子不再好過，該行業(yè)不得不加倍努力，以適應(yīng)一個(gè)更成熟更分化的市場(chǎng)的復(fù)雜性。

　　Burberry warned in October that sales had been dented by an “increasingly challenging environment for luxury, particularly Chinese customers”. 巴黎銀行證券部分析師盧卡?索爾卡(Luca Solca)表示，中國市場(chǎng)“近期的表現(xiàn)對(duì)任何品牌而言都不怎么好，但Prada和博柏利(Burberry)在中國面臨的壓力似乎超過業(yè)內(nèi)同行。”

　　Many of China’s wealthiest spenders have had their fill of the big names and are looking for something different, say analysts. Other, more price-conscious consumers, are buying online. Meanwhile, more Chinese citizens are travelling abroad, where they can see that prices are often 30 per cent cheaper abroad than at home. 今年10月，博柏利警告稱，“越來越具挑戰(zhàn)性的奢侈品環(huán)境，尤其是中國顧客”影響了該公司銷量。

　　The devaluation of the renminbi in August reduced the price gap with Europe, though some luxury brands — notably Chanel — had already tried to address the problem by standardising prices on some of its bags worldwide. 分析師們表示，對(duì)很多中國富豪來說，該買的大品牌都買了，他們正在尋找不同的東西。對(duì)價(jià)格更敏感的其他消費(fèi)者正在網(wǎng)上購物。與此同時(shí)，更多的中國公民到海外旅游，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)國外的價(jià)格往往比國內(nèi)低出30%。

　　As Angelica Cheung, editor-in-chief of Vogue China, says: “The market has changed so much in the past 12 months, not only because of the economy but also because of technology and travel. The companies haven’t moved as quickly.” 8月的人民幣貶值縮窄了與歐洲的價(jià)格差距，盡管一些奢侈品牌(特別是香奈兒)此前已試圖通過對(duì)部分手袋實(shí)行全球統(tǒng)一價(jià)來解決這個(gè)問題。

　　But luxury companies will have to move fast because their expectations of cohorts of new spenders from an emerging middle class are too bullish, as highlighted by the Demand Institute. “Most Chinese citizens have a long way to go before entering the middle class,” it said. 正如《Vogue》中國版總編張宇(Angelica Cheung)所言：“過去12個(gè)月里，市場(chǎng)改變了很多，其原因不僅僅在于經(jīng)濟(jì)，還在于科技和旅游。相關(guān)企業(yè)未能跟上。”

　　Louise Keely, a co-author of its report, described as a “myth” the expectation of reaping benefits by opening luxury emporia in a host of smaller cities. 但奢侈品公司將必須快速拿出對(duì)策，因?yàn)樗麄儗?duì)于不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階層帶來大批新顧客的預(yù)期過于樂觀。正如“需求研究所”所指出的：“多數(shù)中國公民在躋身于中產(chǎn)階層之前還有很長一段路要走。”

　　Luxury companies were attracted by the cheap rents on offer from local mayors anxious to boast a shiny new mall and by the big populations of even tertiary cities. But these consumers do not necessarily have the money for a Gucci or Louis Vuitton handbag.

　　As a result of this rapid expansion, China has more luxury stores than any other country in the world, outpacing the US by a wide margin, according to Bernstein Research, and nearing saturation. “需求研究所”報(bào)告作者之一路易絲?基莉(Louise Keely)表示，通過在大批中小城市開設(shè)奢侈品購物中心來獲益的指望是一個(gè)“神話”。

　　“Quietly brands have stopped opening new stores,” says Torsten Stocker, Hong Kong-based partner at consulting group AT Kearney. 近幾年，奢侈品公司被地方政府提供的廉價(jià)租金以及二三線城市的龐大人口數(shù)量所吸引;地方政府官員急于用嶄新的光彩奪目的購物中心來炫耀自己的政績。但那里的消費(fèi)者不一定有錢購買Gucci或路易威登手袋。

　　LVMH, the world’s biggest luxury goods group by sales, has closed three Louis Vuitton shops in China, including the brand’s first outlet in the southern city of Guangzhou, following closures in Harbin and Urumqi. 這種快速擴(kuò)張的結(jié)果是，中國的奢侈品門店數(shù)量超過全球其他任何國家，伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，其數(shù)量大大超過美國，并正在接近飽和。

　　Jean-Jacques Guiony, the French company’s finance director, had said last month that the group might close some shops in second-tier cities. “China, Hong Kong and Macau are suffering,” he said. Sales of luxury goods are expected to contract 25 per cent in Hong Kong this year, according to Bain. 咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)科爾尼(A.T. Kearney)駐香港合伙人唐仕敦(Torsten Stocker)表示：“一些大品牌正悄悄叫停開張新門店的計(jì)劃。”

　　The UK’s Burberry and Coach of the US have scaled back in Hong Kong, where rents are rising but the number of Chinese visitors is falling. 全球銷售額最大的奢侈品集團(tuán)LVMH已關(guān)閉其在中國的3家路易威登門店，包括該品牌在南方城市廣州的首家門店，以及哈爾濱和烏魯木齊的門店。

　　Beneficiaries of this shift include North Face, an outdoor brand, and sports companies such as Nike and Adidas, reflecting a growing emphasis on healthier lifestyles. 今年10月，這家法國公司的財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)讓-雅克?蓋恩伊(Jean-Jacques Guiony)表示，集團(tuán)可能關(guān)閉其在中國二線城市的一些門店。他表示：“中國內(nèi)地、香港和澳門正出現(xiàn)困境。”根據(jù)貝恩的數(shù)據(jù)，預(yù)計(jì)今年香港奢侈品銷售額將收縮25%。

　　Some brands are going against the trend with new openings. Hermès, a relatively late entrant to the Chinese market, has expanded slowly, partly because of production constraints. It opened two new shops last year, making a total of 23, which is less than half the size of the network of Kering’s Gucci or Louis Vuitton. 英國的博柏利和美國的蔻馳(Coach)均縮減了香港的業(yè)務(wù)，在這里，租金在上漲，但中國內(nèi)地游客數(shù)量卻在減少。

　　As Christopher Bailey, Burberry chief executive, said last month: “The fundamentals of the luxury industry are changing. Growth in Chinese luxury spending is moderating.” 這種轉(zhuǎn)變的受益者包括戶外品牌North Face以及耐克(Nike)和阿迪達(dá)斯(Adidas)等運(yùn)動(dòng)品牌，這反映出人們?cè)絹碓阶⒅馗】档纳罘绞健?/p>

　　Those fundamentals include a newfound confidence among Chinese consumers that makes them less willing to accept what western luxury brands say they should buy. 一些品牌正逆勢(shì)開店。進(jìn)入中國市場(chǎng)相對(duì)較晚的愛馬仕(Hermès)一直擴(kuò)張緩慢，部分原因是產(chǎn)量限制。該品牌去年在中國新開兩家門店，門店總量達(dá)到23家，不到開云集團(tuán)(Kering)旗下的Gucci或路易威登門店數(shù)量的一半。

　　“There been a real shift over the past two years in consumer perception about what the right product to buy should be,” says Benjamin Cavender of China Market Research in Shanghai, who says that these consumers perceive big brands as catering to the nouveau riche. 正如博柏利首席執(zhí)行官克里斯托弗?貝利(Christopher Bailey)在10月所說過的：“奢侈品行業(yè)的基本面因素正在變化。中國人的奢侈品支出增速正在放緩。”

　　“It used to be about making a safe big brand purchase to show off. That’s shifted towards making purchases depending on the individual’s interests and lifestyle,” he adds. 這些基本面因素包括中國消費(fèi)者找到了新的自信，不再那么愿意接受西方奢侈品牌傳遞的有關(guān)他們?cè)撡I什么的信息。

　　Consumers also want to differentiate themselves by spending money on experiences, such as travel, fine dining and the home, instead of buying another designer product, says Emmanuel Hemmerle, managing partner at Emmanuel Hemmerle, a leadership consultancy.

　　He adds that seven years ago, the Michelin-starred Jean Georges restaurant in Shanghai “had a clientele which was 80 per cent French; now it’s 80 per cent Chinese”. 位于上海的中國市場(chǎng)研究集團(tuán)(China Market Research Group)的本杰明?卡文德爾(Benjamin Cavender)表示：“過去兩年，消費(fèi)者對(duì)于自己購買哪些產(chǎn)品才合適的觀念真的發(fā)生了變化。”他表示，這些消費(fèi)者認(rèn)為大品牌迎合了暴發(fā)戶的需求。

　　Consumers are also showing more of an interest in homegrown brands, he says, which could favour a nascent domestic luxury industry. “People are going back to their roots because of a pride and a security in their identity.” 他補(bǔ)充稱：“過去，人們購買保險(xiǎn)的大品牌產(chǎn)品是為了炫富。如今則轉(zhuǎn)向根據(jù)個(gè)人興趣和生活方式購買。”

　　Luxury goods companies are reacting to these changes. Coach, the US leather goods group, is reaping the benefits within China of being more affordable than many of its upscale competitors, but says that spending by Chinese tourists is also growing. 埃曼努埃爾?海默爾埃梅萊(Emmanuel Hemmerle)是以他自己的姓名命名的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力咨詢公司的管理合伙人。他表示，消費(fèi)者還希望通過把錢花在體驗(yàn)方面(例如旅游、美食和家居)來體現(xiàn)自己的不同，而不是購買另一款設(shè)計(jì)師產(chǎn)品。

　　“The Chinese tourist is an increasingly large part of our business globally — notably in Japan and Europe. We are staffing into this trend, increasing the number of Mandarin speaking store associates in these geographies,” it says. 他補(bǔ)充稱，7年前，上海的米其林(Michelin)三星餐廳Jean Georges “80%的客人是法國人;如今80%是中國人”。

　　The UK’s Burberry is focusing on digital marketing and shifting away from stores, cutting the number of retail staff in Hong Kong by 25 per cent. “In Hong Kong, we’re switching our investment from iconic out-of-home sites that target tourists, to emails, events and media more relevant to the local customer,” said Mr Bailey this month. 他表示，消費(fèi)者還顯示出更多的對(duì)本土品牌的興趣，這可能有利于新興的國內(nèi)奢侈品行業(yè)。“出于對(duì)自身身份認(rèn)同的自豪和安全感，人們正追本溯源。”

　　The upside of shutting underperforming stores, and focusing on the more dynamic locations, is that China could become a more profitable country for luxury companies. 奢侈品公司正對(duì)這些變化做出反應(yīng)。美國皮革制品集團(tuán)蔻馳在中國正因?yàn)楫a(chǎn)品價(jià)格較很多高端競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手更親民而受益，但該集團(tuán)表示，中國游客的支出也在增加。

　　Erwan Rambourg, luxury goods analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong, says: “Staff costs and rents remain reasonable relative to the rest of the world. We think profit margins will improve because the brands already have enough shops, so can rein in the capex for retail expansion that has weighed on profit margins.” 該集團(tuán)表示：“中國游客對(duì)我們?nèi)驑I(yè)務(wù)的貢獻(xiàn)越來越大，特別是在日本和歐洲。我們正迎合這種趨勢(shì)，在這些地區(qū)增加說普通話店員的數(shù)量。”

　　He says sales will recover but not overnight. It will take time for import taxes and consumption taxes to be lowered, which would reduce the gap between prices in China compared with other countries. 英國的博柏利正聚焦于數(shù)字營銷并轉(zhuǎn)向門店以外，將香港零售員工的數(shù)量減少25%。貝利最近表示：“在香港，我們正把投資從瞄準(zhǔn)游客的標(biāo)志性戶外廣告轉(zhuǎn)向與當(dāng)?shù)仡櫩透嚓P(guān)的電郵、活動(dòng)和媒體。”

　　There are some tantalising signs of improvement. Burberry said sales were picking up in China relative to its last quarter. Cartier-owner, Richemont said this month that growth had resumed in mainland China, lifted by retail sales through its own boutiques. 關(guān)閉業(yè)績不佳的門店、專注于更具活力的經(jīng)營地點(diǎn)的好處在于，對(duì)奢侈品集團(tuán)而言，中國有望成為一個(gè)更加利潤豐厚的市場(chǎng)。

　　Gary Saage, finance director of the Swiss group, last month told analysts that in Hong Kong “it’s getting a little less worse?.?.?.?but you know, I’m not going to be popping champagne on that”. 匯豐(HSBC)駐香港奢侈品分析師埃爾文?朗堡(Erwan Rambourg)表示：“相對(duì)于全球其他地區(qū)，中國的員工成本和租金仍相對(duì)合理。我們認(rèn)為，利潤率將改善，因?yàn)楦髌放埔呀?jīng)擁有足夠多的門店，能夠壓縮資本支出，無需進(jìn)行拖累利潤率的零售擴(kuò)張。”

　　Broadened horizons: Chinese spending overseas 他表示，銷售額將復(fù)蘇，但不會(huì)一蹴而就。降低進(jìn)口稅和消費(fèi)稅(這將縮窄中國與其他國家之間的價(jià)格差距)需要時(shí)間。

　　Chinese tourism has taken off spectacularly in recent years, even though only 6 per cent of the population has a passport. Almost 120m Chinese travelled abroad last year, more than double the number five years ago. 目前有一些令人心動(dòng)的改善跡象。博柏利表示，在華銷售額較上一季度出現(xiàn)起色?？ǖ貋?Cartier)所有者瑞士歷峰集團(tuán)(Richemont)上月表示，受專賣店零售銷售的提振，中國業(yè)務(wù)已恢復(fù)增長。

　　These tourists are hugely important for the luxury goods industry because two-thirds of the ￠65bn of Chinese luxury spending last year took place outside China, some of it by middleman used by consumers to bypass the high taxes on luxury imports that make it cheaper to buy abroad. 這家瑞士集團(tuán)的財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)加里?薩吉(Gary Saage)在10月告訴分析師，在香港，“情況變得不那么糟糕了……但你們知道，我們不會(huì)為此開香檳慶祝”。

　　Wealthy travellers are tightening their purse strings, however. Per capita spending on shopping fell 8 per cent in 2014, year on year, according to FT Confidential Research, a Financial Times’ investment research service, because of the economic slowdown and the clampdown on gift-giving. 拓寬視角：中國人海外支出

　　Total spending increased, however, because the number of overseas trips grew 20 per cent. 近年中國旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展引人注目，即使全國僅有6%的人口持有護(hù)照。去年，赴海外旅游的中國游客達(dá)到近1.2億人次，是5年前的兩倍多。

　　Yet the traditional destinations of Hong Kong for shopping and Macau for gambling, are not reaping the benefits of this rise because increasingly Chinese tourists prefer to travel to new destinations. 這些游客對(duì)于奢侈品行業(yè)極其重要，因?yàn)橹袊巳ツ?50億歐元的奢侈品支出中，有三分之二發(fā)生在中國境外，其中一部分源自消費(fèi)者利用中間人代購，繞過高額奢侈品進(jìn)口稅，后者使奢侈品在海外購買更便宜。

　　Hong Kong is also suffering from unfavourable exchange rates and the aftermath of last year’s political protests that have left many Chinese feeling unwelcome. 然而，富有的游客正收緊錢包。根據(jù)英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》旗下的投資研究服務(wù)部門“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的數(shù)據(jù)，2014年，人均購物支出同比下降8%，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和政府對(duì)禮品饋贈(zèng)的打擊。

　　South Korea and Japan are instead growing in popularity. A quarter of Chinese tourists chose South Korea for their first trip this year — double the number last year, according to FT Confidential. 不過，整體支出增加，因?yàn)楹Ｍ饴眯腥舜卧鲩L20%。

　　France tops the list of destinations, though it is too soon to say whether last week’s terrorist attacks will deter visitors. 然而。傳統(tǒng)的購物目的地香港和賭博目的地澳門沒有從中獲利，因?yàn)樵絹碓蕉嗟闹袊鴥?nèi)地游客更青睞新的目的地。

　　The government in Beijing is trying to encourage shoppers to spend at home rather than abroad, through the development of domestic duty-free shopping zones, such as on Hainan island in the south. 香港還受到不利匯率以及去年讓很多內(nèi)地人感到不受歡迎的政治抗議余波的影響。

　　Erwan Rambourg, analyst at HSBC, says: “We think that luxury sales in China will recover, thanks to lowered taxes and more domestic duty free outlets that will make purchasing abroad less compelling.” 韓國和日本正越來越受歡迎。根據(jù)“投資參考”的數(shù)據(jù)，今年有四分之一的中國游客把韓國作為首個(gè)出境游目的地，是去年人數(shù)的兩倍。

　　Scheherazade Daneshkhu in London, Ralph Atkins in Zurich, Adam Thomson in Paris, Rachel Sanderson in Milan, Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai, Lindsay Whipp in Chicago, Jamil Anderlini, Wan Li and Christian Shepherd in Beijing 法國列在中國出境游目的地名單的首位，現(xiàn)在就斷言最近的恐怖主義襲擊會(huì)不會(huì)嚇退游客還為時(shí)尚早。

　　中國政府正努力發(fā)展國內(nèi)的免稅購物區(qū)，例如南方的海南島，鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)者在國內(nèi)支出。

　　匯豐分析師埃爾文·朗堡表示：“我們認(rèn)為，中國的奢侈品銷售將復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)槎愂障抡{(diào)以及國內(nèi)更多的免稅門店將讓出國購物的吸引力下降。”